EUBCE 2026 - Hidayatul MUSTAFIDAH ROHMAWATI - Assessing Indonesia’s Biodiesel Supply Chain using System Dynamic Modelling: Feasibility toward B50 Implementation

Assessing Indonesia’s Biodiesel Supply Chain using System Dynamic Modelling: Feasibility toward B50 Implementation

Short Introductive summary

Indonesia, as one of the world’s largest palm oil producers, has long recognized the strategic value of palm oil in advancing its national energy agenda and reducing dependency on fossil fuels. The country has progressively increased the mandate for blending ratio to 40% (B40) in 2024 and is targeting 50% (B50) by 2026. This mandate became the most ambitious blending target ever implemented globally. This study aims to assess the sustainability and resilience of Indonesia’s biodiesel supply chain in the context of the government’s B50 policy implementation plans. Employing a System Dynamics (SD) model, the research analyzes the interlinkages between biofuel supply and demand by examining key determinants. The findings underscore that achieving higher biofuel blending ratios requires not only technological readiness and resource availability, but also an integrated and adaptive policy framework that ensures strategic implementation and equitable benefits across the value chain, including palm oil smallholders and biodiesel producers, fuel distributors, consumers, and the broader environment.

H. Mustafidah Rohmawati, Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center, South Jakarta, INDONESIA
M. Ayu Cindy Putriastuti, Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center, South Jakarta, INDONESIA
U. Widhiantoro, IREEM, South Jakarta, INDONESIA
F. Citra Yusgiantoro, Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center, South Jakarta, INDONESIA