EUBCE 2026 - Shubham TIWARI - Carbon Implications of Increased Demand for Wood Products for the European Bioeconomy

Carbon Implications of Increased Demand for Wood Products for the European Bioeconomy

Short Introductive summary

The transition toward a bioeconomy is central to the European Union’s strategy for reducing fossil-resource dependence and achieving climate neutrality. Woody biomass plays a key role in this transition by substituting carbon-intensive materials and temporarily storing carbon in harvested wood products (HWPs). However, rising demand for woody biomass is expected to alter both land use and forest management, with consequences for forest-carbon storage. This study develops a spatially explicit modelling framework to quantify landscape forest-carbon dynamics associated with HWPs in the European bioeconomy. It integrates GLOBIOM, which projects future HWP and bioenergy demand; G4M, which simulates forest growth, management, and carbon-stock changes on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid; and BeWhere, which optimizes biomass allocation to processing facilities based on techno-economic and spatial constraints. The coupled system enables region- and product-specific attribution of forest-carbon impacts, revealing trade-offs between material-substitution benefits and forest-carbon preservation, and regional synergies in resource efficiency.

S. Tiwari, International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA
A. Rondón Villabona, Utrecht University, THE NETHERLANDS
A. Duden, Utrecht University, THE NETHERLANDS
F. Di Fulvio, International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA
F. Schipfer, International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA
F. Kraxner, International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA
F. van der Hilst, Utrecht University, THE NETHERLANDS