EUBCE 2026 - Etienne DE CHAMBOST - Integrating Biomass Supply Curves into an Energy System Model: Are European Sustainable Aviation Fuel Targets Reasonably Achievable?

Integrating Biomass Supply Curves into an Energy System Model: Are European Sustainable Aviation Fuel Targets Reasonably Achievable?

Short Introductive summary

The decarbonization of Europe’s aviation and maritime sectors, driven by ReFuel EU and Fuel EU Maritime, will require large-scale deployment of sustainable fuels to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. These strategies rely on biogenic carbon, raising key questions about biomass availability, cost-competitiveness, and environmental impacts. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide broad insights but often assume bioenergy carbon neutrality and ignore spatial heterogeneity in land-use emissions. Assessing the feasibility of biofuel deployment thus calls for bottom-up approaches that integrate regionalized data and sectoral interactions. This study proposes a novel framework coupling the multi-energy optimization model EnergyScope with spatially explicit biomass supply curves and emission factors. Building on previous work on carbon flow tracking in EnergyScope, we replace average supply costs and emission factors with marginal supply curves, enabling a region-specific representation of biomass availability and environmental impacts. This approach draws on the concept of emission supply curves and adapts methodologies from Brazilian case studies to the European context.

E. De Chambost, CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE
L. Merceron, CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE
S. Saadaoui, INRAE, Palaiseau, FRANCE
B. Gabrielle, INRAE, Palaiseau, FRANCE
G. Boissonnet, CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE